The S&P 500 fell 1.6% last week, and volatility ramped up over fears that AI stocks are in a bubble and valuations overall are stretched. The good news is we continue to think earnings are justifying this bull market. But pockets of technology could be a tad frothy, and a pause and a bi …
A strong U.S. employment report was the top market event last week. Payrolls surged 943,000, and the prior two months were revised higher by 119,000 (Figure 1). Restaurants and bars continue to rehire workers as activity expands. The leisure and hospitality segment, which includes eating e …
When a problem is 14 or 15 years away, there’s not great urgency to fix it. But when that problem comes within a decade, that’s a different story. You’ve likely read that the Social Security trust fund is going to run out of money by 2034, but with the looming Trustees of the Social Securit …
Supply chain issues continued to constrain economic growth and housing. U.S. GDP grew 6.5% in the second quarter, falling 2.0% short of expectations. Strong consumer demand created a surge in purchases. Production didn’t match demand, and the corresponding drop in inventories robbed more t …
Though we’re still in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, with the number of vaccinations increasing and the great reopening upon us, we’re reemerging from our bunkers in full force.
The more contagious Delta variant has contributed to a 172% increase in U.S. COVID-19 cases over the last two weeks. The spike is raising concerns some social distancing measures may be reenacted. Initial jobless claims are increasing. Last week claims jumped above 400,000 after staying bel …
Two big economic releases in the U.S. and a series of economic data in China highlighted a challenging week for U.S. stocks. Inflation surged 0.9% and has now increased 5.4% over the last year (Figure 1). The U.S. Consumer Price Index increased more than expected, led by large spikes in use …
