In this July 4th edition of The Glass Half Full, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, take a quick break from the fireworks to share four reasons to be thankful for where markets stand at the midpoint of the year.
First up is the labor market. Yes, the latest payrolls report came in a touch soft, but the bigger picture tells a better story: job growth has averaged around 111,000 per month over the last three months, a big step up from 2025’s roughly 10,000 average, and the unemployment rate sits at a healthy 4.2%. Second, this year’s rally isn’t just a Mag 7 story. The S&P 500 is up close to 10% at the midpoint, but the other 493 stocks are actually outperforming, up in the low teens, with industrials, energy, materials, healthcare, and even regional banks joining the party. That kind of broadening is exactly what a healthy bull market looks like.
Third, inflation is still running hot, but falling oil prices should eventually work their way into cheaper gas at the pump. And even with inflation elevated, Ryan and Sonu don’t expect the Fed to hike rates, which effectively means policy is getting easier in real terms, a tailwind rather than a headwind. Finally, seasonality is on investors’ side. Historically, when the S&P 500 is up between five and 10% at midyear, like it is now, the back half of the year tends to outperform, often pushing full year returns into the mid-teens. Add in earnings and margins that keep climbing, and the bull case stays firmly intact heading into the second half.
Oh, and go U.S. Men’s National Team!
Key Takeaways:
- The labor market is holding up better than headlines suggest. Payroll growth has averaged 111,000 per month over the last three months, well above 2025’s pace, with unemployment steady at 4.2%.
- This year’s rally is broadening out. The S&P 500’s other 493 stocks are outperforming the Mag 7, with industrials, energy, materials, healthcare, and regional banks all contributing.
- Falling oil prices should ease gas prices over time, and with the Fed likely on hold despite elevated inflation, real policy is actually loosening, a tailwind for stocks.
- History favors the back half. When the S&P 500 is up 5-10% at midyear, the following six months have historically outperformed, often pushing full-year returns into the mid-teens, with earnings and margin growth still firmly in place.
Jump to:
0:00 – July 4th Welcome And Setup
0:21 – Reason One: Jobs And Growth
1:28 – Reason Two: A Broader Rally
2:23 – Reason Three: Inflation Fed Oil
3:23 – Reason Four: Seasonality And Earnings
4:25 – Quick Sign-Off And Thanks
Connect with Ryan:
- LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
- X: @ryandetrick
Connect with Sonu:
- LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
- X: @sonusvarghese
The views stated in this podcast are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Wealth Services, LLC, or CWM, LLC. and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese are non-registered associates of Cetera Wealth Services LLC.
A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.
Please note: Cetera Wealth Services, LLC is not registered to offer direct investments into commodities or futures. Instead, we provide access to this asset class via mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the stocks of associated companies. Investments in commodities may be affected by the overall market movements, changes in interest rates and other factors such as weather, disease, embargoes and international economic and political developments. Commodities are volatile investments and should form only a small part of a diversified portfolio. An investment in commodities may not be suitable for all investors.
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